Posted on 13-01-2008
Filed Under (Islam) by Liam

Editor’s note: Nicolas Krebs from Amsterdam posted a comment below. In it, he quoted eleven exerpts from this posting and took exception to them.  I edited his comment in order to assist interested readers in the point-counterpoint debate.  I inserted the numbers 1 through 11 before each of his quotes so you may easily track my responses.  I left Nicolas’ misspellings and gramatical errors intact. Please expand the Comments tag below this article to read both Nicolas’ comments and my rebuttal.

A book that’s high on my recommended reading list is America Alone, by Mark Steyn.  This is an entertaining read, as Mr. Steyn delivers his message with ironic humor. If it were otherwise, the book would be depressing due to the geopolitical ramifications. 

Mr. Steyn’s expertise is demography, the study of populations and the factors that define them.  The premise is best stated in his own words, “The most important quotation in the entire text is… a bald statement by the late historian Arnold Toynbee: ‘Civilizations die from suicide, not murder.’” The meaning of this will become clear later in this commentary.

In his prologue, Steyn lays out the theme of the book in noting that, “In 1970, the developed nations had twice as big a share of the global population as the Muslim world: 30 percent to 15 percent.  By 2000, they were at parity: each had about 20 percent.”  There are dire consequences of this shift.  “… almost every geopolitical crisis takes place on what Samuel Huntington, in The Clash of Civilizations, calls ‘the boundary looping across Eurasia and Africa that separates Muslims from non-Muslims.’” However, Steyn carefully notes, “Just for the record, my book is not about Islam, not really.  Rather, it posits Islam as an opportunist beneficiary of Western self-enfeeblement.”

Steyn methodically demonstrates an alarming trend in population statistics: in every industrialized nation – except for the United States – the fertility rate is below 2.1 children per adult female. The importance of this number is: it is the population replacement rate. A higher rate will spur population increase and anything less will result in a contraction, a trend that no civilization has ever survived.  He enumerates statistical facts and anecdotal evidence that support his premise.  Japan, Russia, Canada and every western European country are all in severe population decline, with fertility rates as low as 1.1.  This trend is due to a number of factors:

  • The alarmist notion of a population ‘bomb’.
  • Ecochondriac’s claim of vanishing natural resources and the humanity-centric influence on global warming.
  • The culture of death that surrounds abortion on demand.
  • The financial strain that children represent in an urban, high-tech world.
  • Humanistic self-indulgence that dismisses the worth of future generations.

The trend is ubiquitous: Italy has a fertility rate of 1.2, Spain, 1.1. My Big Fat Greek Wedding will quickly be anachronistic with a fertility rate of only 1.3 in Greece. By 2050, fully sixty percent of all Italians will have no brothers, no sisters, no cousins, no aunts and no uncles.  Four grandparents will have to dote all their affection on one grandchild – if they are fortunate enough to have even one.

Europe’s lavish social programs have been in serious trouble – far worse shape than the imminent collapse of the Social Security system here in the U.S.  The median age in European countries is about 40, with Germany being the highest at 43.  This simply means that there haven’t been enough babies in more than a score of years to bolster the aging workforce as it hobbles into the entitlement years.  The dearth of tax-paying yuppies means a greater burden placed on those foolish enough to stick around.  So what are the oldsters to do?

The European solution has been to import their workforce.  The prime supplier of that workforce? Countries with high birthrates: Niger is 7.46; Mali, 7.42; Somalia, 6.76; Afghanistan, 6.69; Yemen, 6.58. As Steyn wryly observes, “Notice what those nations have in common? Starts with an I, ends with a slam, As in: slam dunk.”

The result of this trend should be cause for concern.  The Muslim population of Rotterdam is forty percent.  The most popular baby boy’s name in Belgium is Mohammed.  In Amsterdam: Mohammed. In Malmö, Sweden: Mohammed.  The British cannot breathe any easier.  In the United Kingdom, Mohammed is the fifth most popular baby boy’s name.

The most entertaining aspect of Steyn’s book is the anecdotal commentary. His stinging wit lays bare the social policies that have weakened his home country Canada, as well as Russia and all of Europe.  He extends a warning to America and beseeches us to wake up before it’s too late.  In my estimation, Steyn hit a home run with his book. It is a must-read for anyone who cares about the future that our grandchildren will inherit.  Or someone else’s grandchildren…

I recently watched a video in which the dictator of Libya, Muammar Khadafi, predicted the annexing of Turkey by the European Union would make Islam the greatest religion in, and would herald the final overthrow of, Europe.

Lest I be guilty of buying into an urban legend, I did my own research.  The CIA maintains an incredible website: The World Factbook, which is updated every two weeks.  I compiled the attached CIA World Factbook Summary and developed my own Slam Dunk Index. The components are:

  • Fertility rate of greater than 4.0
  • Unemployment rate greater than 10%
  • Immigration rate less than zero; more people are leaving than coming
  • Male literacy rate less than 70% – An indication of pervasive low job skills
  • Population density greater than 100 people per sqare kilometer
  • Gross Domestic Product less than $5,000 per year per capita
  • Median age less than 30.

I assigned a value of one for each of these indicators and ranked them, highest to lowest.  In my estimation, the higher the number, the greater the level of dissatisfaction. 

I believe my index is a recipe for disaster: high birthrates combined with minimal skills for the work force, insufficient job availability, low income potential, no economic engine to spur growth, a steady stream of emmigrants leading the way to a better life, and lots of youthful energy to fuel discontent for those left behind.  Interestingly, in the countries scoring three or greater, there are 955 million Muslims. That’s one out of six people on the planet.  My calculation is based upon the total population of those countries multiplied by the percentage estimated to be Muslim.

It’s also interesting to note that, out of all the countries for which data is available, the top six countries in which males outnumber females are all in the Arabian peninsula, the Wahabbi cauldron that produced fifteen of the nineteen 9-11 terrorists.  Refer to the second tab of my spreadsheet for the statistical analysis that supports this.  Considering that wealthy Arabian men marry as many as four wives, that leaves a lot of pent-up testosterone looking for an outlet. At a miniumum, there are in excess of 6 million men on the Saudi peninsula with no prospect for a mate.  Keep in mind the statistic that 90% of all violent crime is perpetrated by single males.

In closing, I want to offer a spiritual challenge. As daunting as these demographics are, God is still on the throne and none of this has caught Him by surprise.  He only asks that His people be available and He will be responsible for the outcome.  I listened to a sermon by Dr. Sameh M. Tawfik this morning. He’s the pastor of the largest church in the Muslim world, the Kasr el-Dobara Evangelical Church, located in Cairo, Egypt.  He indicated that the Lord has been penetrating the Islamic world to a greater degree in the past 10 years than in the whole 1,400 years of Muslim expansion. He attributes this to the faithful prayers of His people and reports that hundreds of thousands of Muslims are coming to know Jesus Christ as their savior.  I received a similar report from Dr. John Reinhold, president of the American Evangelistic Association.  He told me that their ELAM affiliate is reporting from 5 to 20 thousand converts to Christ in Iran each month.

Please pray fervently for these ministry opportunities and consider whether you should respond as Isaiah, “Here am I, Lord.  Send me.”

Liam Roberts

Other blog entries you may find interesting:

The New Dark Ages: A Long Eurabian Night
Hand-Wringing Diplomacy: Mideast Peace is an Impossible Goal
Islam: What the West Needs to Know
A Woman’s Place in Islam
Islamic Law Requires Breast Feeding of Male Co-workers
What is the Qur’an? Archaeological Find Invalidates Islam’s Holy Book
Love Your Enemies and Pray For Those Who Persecute You
Madrassah Schools: Why They Pose a Threat to Western Civilization
Violence in the Bible: 1st Response to a Muslim
Validity of Scripture: 2nd Response Presents The Bible as Superior to the Qur’an
The Historic Alliance of Christianity and Science
DNA and the Flood: The Biblical Account is Written in Our Genetic Code
Jihad.com: Islamofascists Are Recruiting Via the Internet
A Brief History of Islam
Submission: The Movie That Led a Muslim to Assassinate Theo Van Gogh
Honoring America’s Fallen Warriors
Profile of A Reluctant Hero: Why Christians Should Defend Themselves
The Enlightenment of Atheism





Comments

Angel on 14 January, 2008 at 11:53 pm #

Steyn is a genius..I just wrote a post about one of his teachers: Ezra Levant,,booyah!


Nicolas Krebs on 16 January, 2008 at 4:40 pm #

1. “in every industrialized nation the fertility rate is below 2.1 children per adult female”

Science name this “demographic transition”.

2. “will result in a contraction, a trend that no civilization has ever survived”

Evidence?

3. “Japan, Russia, Canada and every western European country are all in severe population decline, with fertility rates as low as 1.1″

No.

4. “Europe’s lavish social programs have been in serious trouble”

Why?

5. “Countries with high birthrates: Niger is 7.46; Mali, 7.42; Somalia, 6.76; Afghanistan, 6.69; Yemen, 6.58″

And next Congo, Angola, Sierra Leone, Congo, Liberia, all country without islam.

6. “The most popular baby boy’s name in Belgium is Mohammed. In Amsterdam: Mohammed. In Malmo, Sweden: Mohammed. In the United Kingdom, Mohammed is the fifth most popular baby boy’s name.”

So what?

7. “The most entertaining aspect of Steyn’s book is the anecdotal commentary.”

When he write that Yemen (population 22M) will sooner outnumber Russia (142M)?

8. “His stinging wit lays bare the social policies that have weakened his home country Canada, Russia and Europe.”

For fertility rate, he is wrong. Developped countries with more social policies (like Sweeden or France) have higher fertility rate than those without (or less, like Germany or Spain).

9. “In my estimation, Steyn hit a home run with his book.”

In my opinion, Mark Steyn is an amateur, who should learn some demography before write a book about demography. Or at least stop lying.

10. “I recently watched a video in which the dictator of Libya”

If you want to trust a dictator…

11. “the top six countries in which males outnumber females are all in the Saudi Arabian peninsula”

It’s because those countries have trillions of dollars, with wich they have millions of foreign workers, most of them being male. For most of them, the first issue or grievance are against theirs arab employer. You can educate yourself with http://www.hrw.org/doc?t=persian_gulf http://www.hrw.org/doc?t=mideast&c=uae http://www.hrw.org/photos/2006/uae1106/ .

Readers who want to go further can consult
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territories_by_fertility_rate
http://www.johannhari.com/archive/article.php?id=1082


admin on 20 January, 2008 at 8:49 am #

My responses to Nicholas:

1. Yes, the term is demographic transition. My intent was to glean the important points of Styne’s thesis and omitted some detail such as this.

2. Styne supports this claim very well in his text.

3. This is also supported in the text, and I independently confirmed the data utilizing the CIA World Factbook, which is updated bi-weekly. I have more confidence in the accuracy of the demographic data found within it as opposed to Wikipedia, which can be notoriously manipulated (cynics may question my faith in the CIA. I contend that they would have no reason to distort data that can be independently verified. Wikipedia data, however…).

4. This point is also discussed extensively in the book. I summarized the problem by noting that the entitlement programs are top-heavy and place a crushing burden on the shrinking worker base to support it. The median age of European countries is a telling statistic in this regard. The population is aging rapidly and childless oldsters want their share of the entitlements since they have no fallback position – they have no energetic yuppie children who can support them in their declining years.

5. I am not arguing that there aren’t other countries with high birthrates. But those countries are not actively exporting a workforce with a singular objective, as are the Muslim countries. A point needs to be understood: Muslims are not assimilated into their adopted countries as are any other demographic grouping. The cultural/religious/political entity of Islam knows no national boundaries. Allegiance to any flag is anathema. It is a personal affront for Muslims to be subject to any law other than Shari’a, and should only be tolerated until Islam gains sufficient strength to overthrow the idolatrous infidel government. This issue will be expanded in my response to number 11 below.

6. The point is: Muslims who have taken up residence in Western Europe are producing a disproportionate number of babies. Styne documents that this trend will lead to the Islamification of Europe within a generation. I tie in the observation that Wahhabi-centric teaching is being propagated in the mosques and Madrassah schools these Muslims attend. Whenever Muslims reach near parity with the indigenous population, the cultural fabric is torn asunder. I could belabor the point with graphical examples, but readers are encouraged to consult the history books to grasp the horrific consequences.

7. You raise an excellent point, although I don’t recall this specific comparison in Styne’s book. Since you brought it up, I did the math. I took the following data for Russia and Yemen: current population statistics, the ratio of men to women, the fertility rate for women. I projected the data for two generations, holding the male/female ratio and the fertility rate constant, which I believe is a reasonable assumption. I calculated that within two generations, Yemen’s population will in fact equal Russia’s. The only question is how soon this may occur. Since the age that women procreate in Yemen is much younger than Russia, the number of years between generations may be compressed and the parity could be achieved within 30 years. Keep in mind one of the first facts I cited from Styne’s book: “In 1970, the developed nations had twice as big a share of the global population as the Muslim world: 30 percent to 15 percent. By 2000, they were at parity: each had about 20 percent.” This is an ominous trend and is the reason for the title of my blog posting. Once Muslims wrest control of democratic governments, we have to assume they will implement Shari’a law; this is commanded in the Qur’an and is anxiously awaited by Muslims of all stripes – even the ‘moderates.’ The result: previously civilized societies will be subjugated to a seventh century, religio-political regime. A new Dark Ages will ensue in Eurabia.

8. I was noting the general trend in Western Europe. There is certainly some variation in the statistics between countries. Your comparison countries are significant, however. Sweden and France happen to have a thriving Muslim population, and may be a significant contributor to their higher fertility rate. It is difficult to parse the data to determine how much the Muslim birthrates are skewing the analysis.

9. I can’t argue an opinion. I recommend that the readers of this blog examine the book, investigate the data as I have and come to their own conclusions.

10. The point is – I DON’T trust dictators; they are too erratic. But they must not be dismissed either. I was merely quoting the Libyan President’s prediction that Muslims will overrun Europe. I contend that this is the true voice of Islam; one that is in keeping with the Qur’anic command that Muslims are to subjugate all nations to Shari’a law. As I have noted previously, the preferred tool for implementing this command is the scimitar.

11. You make my point very well. These wealthy Muslim countries have struck a Faustian bargain. They import millions of Muslim men and cluster them into communities where they naturally seek social connections. For these Muslims, this means gravitating to Wahabbi-controlled Mosques and Madrassah schools where they are then indoctrinated with militant Islamic teachings. This in turn creates discontent with the social order, both within the countries of the Arabian peninsula, as well as in the Islamic countries to which these workers will eventually return. This is the nature of man: for the have-nots to resent the upper class. My contention is that this socio-economic unrest is being fueled by religous fanaticism and it is reaching epidemic proportions throughout the Islamic world.

Liam Roberts.


Nicolas Krebs on 3 February, 2008 at 6:07 pm #

1 And does Mark Steyn know the demographic transition?

3 “This is also supported in the text, and I independently confirmed the data utilizing the CIA World Factbook”

* http://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ “CIA – The World Factbook”
* http://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sw.html
* “last updated on 13 December, 2007″
* “Population growth rate: 0.159% (2007 est.)”
* “Total fertility rate: 1.66 children born/woman (2007 est.)”
* http://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/fr.html
* “France”
* “last updated on 13 December, 2007″
* “Population growth rate: 0.588% (2007 est.)”
* “Total fertility rate: 1.98 children born/woman (2007 est.)”

So the utterance/sentence “every western european courntry is population decreasing and hs fertility rate of 1.1″ is wrong.

4 Really?

5 “I am not arguing that there aren’t other countries with high birthrates.”

You were.

“But those countries are not actively exporting a workforce with a singular objective, as are the Muslim countries.”

Really?

6 “Muslims are not assimilated into their adopted countries as are any other demographic grouping”

Really? Such sooner the Irish, the Italian or the Japanese were said to cannot be assimilated as previous immigrant?

“The cultural/religious/political entity of Islam knows no national boundaries.”

Of course. Islam is a religion. Not something limited by national boundaries.

“Allegiance to any flag is anathema. It is a personal affront for Muslims to be subject to any law other than Shari’a, and should only be tolerated until Islam gains sufficient strength to overthrow the idolatrous infidel government.”

Really?

“Muslims who have taken up residence in Western Europe are producing a disproportionate number of babies.”

About one or two point in fertility rate. Amazing.

“Styne documents that this trend will lead to the Islamification of Europe within a generation.”

And that 20 millions of europen Muslims will became 200 in one generation.

“I tie in the observation that Wahhabi-centric teaching is being propagated in the mosques and Madrassah schools these Muslims attend.”

Really?

7 “You raise an excellent point”

And that’s about the main plot of Steyn’s thesis.

“I did the math. I took the following data for Russia and Yemen: current population statistics, the ratio of men to women, the fertility rate for women. I projected the data for two generations, holding the male/female ratio and the fertility rate constant, which I believe is a reasonable assumption.”

This is not a reasonable assumption. Learn some demography.

“I calculated that within two generations, Yemen’s population will in fact equal Russia’s.”

And at this trend, some generations laters, Yemen would equal USA’s, next China’s, and later grow up to 10 billions people.

“This is an ominous trend and is the reason for the title of my blog posting. ”

Do you do the same for India’s an China’s incredible increase of population since 1900?

“this is commanded in the Qur’an and is anxiously awaited by Muslims of all stripes – even the ‘moderates.’ The result: previously civilized societies will be subjugated to a seventh century, religio-political regime. A new Dark Ages will ensue in Eurabia.”

Really?

8 “I was noting the general trend in Western Europe. There is certainly some variation in the statistics between countries.”

(smile)

“Sweden and France happen to have a thriving Muslim population, and may be a significant contributor to their higher fertility rate. It is difficult to parse the data to determine how much the Muslim birthrates are skewing the analysis.”

On the contrary, it is very easy. In France and in Sweden
* fertility rate is about 2
* Muslim population is about 5%
* Muslim population fertility rate is about 3
(3-2)*5/100=0.05, so except for Muslim population, the fertility rate is about 1.95 or 1.90.

9 “I can’t argue an opinion.”

Me neither (see my “Really?”).

10 “I was merely quoting the Libyan President’s prediction that Muslims will overrun Europe. I contend that this is the true voice of Islam”

Really?

11 “They import millions of Muslim men and cluster them into communities where they naturally seek social connections. For these Muslims, this means gravitating to Wahabbi-controlled Mosques and Madrassah schools where they are then indoctrinated with militant Islamic teachings.”

Really?

“This in turn creates discontent with the social order”

With http://www.hrw.org/ helping them. A very muslim organisation.

“My contention is that this socio-economic unrest is being fueled by religous fanaticism and it is reaching epidemic proportions throughout the Islamic world.”

Really?


Ron on 19 February, 2008 at 4:15 am #

Great analysis! Thanks!


admin on 2 March, 2008 at 1:30 pm #

Nicolas:

Thanks for your latest comment. I will do some additional research and reply later.


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